Our Spring 2026 Market Update
It’s officially spring. How can we tell? The pollen! Between the oak worms, everything having a yellowish-green hue, and the complete inability to keep cars clean, Northeast Florida is nothing if not memorable this time of year. Spring also means real estate. As we head into what is traditionally our busiest season, there is a lot to talk about — from the constantly shifting mortgage rates and cautious sellers to some genuinely encouraging momentum in closed sales.
Greater Jacksonville Early Spring Market Snapshot
According to realMLS data, the Jacksonville area market is showing real signs of gaining spring momentum. Here’s where things stand as of March 2026:
February painted a similar picture of steady growth: 1,918 closed sales (+21.5% from January and +3.2% year-over-year), a median sales price of $351,750, and homes spending a median of 52 days on market (-3.7% month-over-month). Both months together tell a consistent story: the market is waking up, and spring is doing what spring does. Active inventory continues to run well below pre-pandemic levels, which means competition for well-priced homes remains real — even as the overall pace feels more balanced compared to the frenzy of recent years.
What’s Happening with Interest Rates?
At the start of 2026, there was real optimism. Mortgage rates had dipped into the high 5’s in early January and Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, was projecting a +14% increase in home sales nationwide for the year.
Then the world reminded us it doesn’t follow forecasts. Broader geopolitical uncertainty and economic pressures pushed rates back up, and as of now rates hovering around 6.5%. That’s not the news anyone wanted, but it’s not the end of the story either.
Yun has since adjusted his outlook, tempering some of that early enthusiasm. But he’s still forecasting growth — just at a more measured pace. And here in Jacksonville, we’re seeing exactly that: not a frenzy, but a focused, active market where motivated buyers and strategic sellers are still getting deals done.
A Closer Look to Home — Clay County, Orange Park & Fleming Island
For those of us living and working in Clay County, the picture looks a little different from the broader Jacksonville numbers — and in many ways, better. Clay County continues to be one of the most attractive sub-markets in Northeast Florida. Here’s why:
Home values remain stable and accessible compared to much of Duval County
Orange Park’s Cost of Living Index sits at 107, meaning it’s 7% more affordable than the average U.S. city
New construction around Lake Asbury continues at a healthy pace, giving first-time buyers excellent options
The continued expansion of the expressway network is driving long-term growth and accessibility in the area
Whether you’re in Orange Park, Fleming Island, Oakleaf, or eyeing a new build near Lake Asbury, this market rewards those who are informed and prepared. That’s exactly where the Genevieve Williams Real Estate team comes in.
So What Does This Mean for You?
If you’re a buyer: Now is a genuinely good time to be looking. Inventory is higher than it was a few months ago, homes are sitting on the market a little longer compared to years past, and sellers are generally more open to negotiations. Yes, rates are at 6.5% — but waiting for 3% again isn’t a strategy. The right home at the right price, financed smartly, is still a great investment. And in Clay County especially, there’s real value to be found.
If you’re a seller: The days of tossing a sign in the yard and watching offers roll in are behind us for now. But here’s the good news — active inventory is still running nearly 14% below last year’s levels in the Jacksonville area. That means less competition for your home than you might think. Strategic pricing and strong presentation are everything right now. Done right, well-priced homes are still moving.
If you’re an investor or thinking long-term: Jacksonville’s fundamentals remain strong — 6% annual income growth, relative affordability compared to other Florida metros, and continued infrastructure investment. Clay County, in particular, continues to be a smart long-term play.
Our Response: Why Wait?
Whether you’re buying, selling, or just trying to make sense of this market, we are here for you. We live here, we work here, and we deeply know and love this community. Reach out anytime — we’d love to help you make your next move.
— Gavin & Ashley