Our 2026 Real Estate Predictions
First off, happy new year to everyone! I hope the holidays were as good to you as they were to me and my family. I’ll tell you, my favorite thing I received for Christmas was my crystal ball. It has helped me dive into my predictions for the 2026 Housing Market…
Let’s talk interest rates first…
They’re supposed to be back down, right?! Well, we are finally seeing some relief! As of early January, we saw Mortgage rates drop into the high 5’s, due to the President directing his representatives to buy $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS). These are the bonds that directly impact mortgage rates, and such a level of buying would easily push rates lower. This was confirmed by the fact that the MBS market reacted immediately. In his announcement, the President offered the dollar amount of "$200bln." Incidentally, as of the most recent monthly filings, the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), the only entities to which the President could have been referring, have $202.9bln of room on their balance sheets before hitting their current regulatory cap. In other words, $200bln is a carefully chosen number and not just some arbitrary number.
Perhaps more importantly, Bill Pulte, the director of the FHFA (which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), has already confirmed this is the game plan.
Now onto home sales…
According to Lawrence Yun, the National Association of Realtor’s Chief Economist, “We are seeing a little better condition for more home sales … with more inventory and the lock-in effect steadily disappearing — because life-changing events are making more people list their property to move on to their next home. This year should be better with lower mortgage rates, and that will qualify more buyers. We are expecting home sales to increase by about 14% nationwide in 2026.”
What does this mean for our market? While our median home price has remained fairly close over the past few years, lower interest rates tend to give a boost. Expect a slight increase in home prices in our area, but not a jump. Inventory and listings were down in December 2025 YoY, but we expect more properties to come to market with the interest rates ticking down a bit. As Mr. Yun stated, people are becoming more restless, and are ready to move on to a new home. Hopefully, this means all of our clients will find their next dream home!
Anticipate a little more competition on some homes as spring buyers begin their search. Also, with so many new homes continuing to be built in Clay County’s southern cities like Green Cove Springs and Middleburg, we are likely to see a lot of first time home buyers head that way.
Overall, I’m excited to say that things are moving in the right direction for buyers and sellers alike in 2026.
Our team in Orange Park is always here to help with any of your questions or real estate needs . Give us a call. We’re here for you and always have our fingers on the pulse of what’s happening in greater Jacksonville!
— Gavin