Gavin’s Mid-Year Market Update
Summertime and showing homes… it’s either hot or there’s a thunderstorm looming. Sometimes both — in the same hour, which honestly is just Northeast Florida doing what Northeast Florida does. But even with the heat index doing its worst, the market has not slowed down. If anything, it has kept right up with the weather — a little intense, a little unpredictable, and moving faster than you expected.
This Fourth of July, my kids watched their very first fireworks show on the water right here in Orange Park. Sitting there watching their faces light up, I thought — this is exactly why people want to live in Clay County. Not just the houses. The community. And the numbers we’ve been watching all year long back that up.
Clay County by the Numbers
All figures below reflect single family residences in Clay County:
Source: realMLS
What the First Half of the Year Told Us
Closed sales nearly doubled. We went from 186 sales in January to 323 in June. That’s not a seasonal blip. That’s a market that woke up and got moving.
Homes are selling fast. Median days on market fell from 53 days in February to just 29 in June. That is a 45% drop in how long it takes a home to go under contract. Sellers who price right are not waiting around.
Prices are holding steady. The median sales price has stayed in a tight $350,000–$367,000 band all year. No wild swings. Just a stable, healthy market where homeowner equity is protected and buyers aren’t chasing inflated numbers.
Inventory is quietly growing. Active listings climbed from 890 in February to 1,058 in June. More choices for buyers, but not so much supply that it puts pressure on prices. That’s exactly the balance we want to see.
Expert Opinions Hold True
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, said it well at the start of the year — and six months in, his words hold up:
“The desire for homeownership has not fallen. Many renters say that if the conditions are right, they would like to become homeowners. The past couple of years have been frustrating because of elevated mortgage rates, but things will be much better to achieve that American dream of ownership in 2026 — with more inventory choices and mortgage rates falling.”
— Lawrence Yun, NAR Chief Economist, January 2026
We are seeing that play out right here in Clay County. Buyers who sat on the sidelines in 2024 and 2025 are making their move. And the market is ready for them.
My Predictions for the Second Half of 2026
We may not be in business of crystal balls, but we still can make solid real estate predictions. Here’s what we expect to see over the second half of the year:
Sales volume stays strong. Demand is real and buyers are active. We expect closed sales to stay well above last year’s pace through the summer and fall.
Homes keep selling quickly. If inventory stays controlled, don’t be surprised to see median days on market push below 25. Sellers: be ready to move fast once you’re listed.
Prices hold steady, maybe nudge up. We’re not predicting a boom, but well-priced Clay County homes should hold firm or see modest gains. The $360,000–$375,000 range feels right for the back half.
Interest rates remain the biggest talking point. Rates around 6.5% haven’t stopped buyers — which tells you something about the confidence in this market. Any meaningful dip toward 6% could bring a new wave of buyers off the fence.
New construction near Lake Asbury keeps Clay County competitive. First-time and move-up buyers have options here that simply don’t exist in much of Duval County. That’s not changing anytime soon.
Want to know more? Whether you’re interested on buying and selling in Clay County or seeking added market information anywhere across Northeast Florida, please reach out. Ashley Wilkinson and I would love to help.
— Gavin Toth