Gavin's Fall 2026 Real Estate Recap
You know that song "November Rain"? Well, around here it’s been more like October rain. Between the storms rolling through at the start of the month and the general Northeast Florida humidity that refuses to take a hint, fall is arriving on its own terms.
But there’s a lot to feel good about right now. The Jaguars are winning - and if you’ve been a Jags fan for any length of time, you know that is worth celebrating. Halloween is right around the corner, and yes, our new puppy Rosie has a costume. Priorities.
The real estate market? Same story. A little mixed on the surface, but genuinely encouraging when you dig in. Let’s break it down…
Northeast Florida: Summer into Fall Big Picture
Here's how the broader Northeast Florida market performed through the summer months:
July was the peak - 2,000 closed sales and homes moving in just 29 days. Things cooled off in August and September as expected, with days on market climbing back to 37 and closed sales pulling back to 1,677. But here's what stands out: prices held firm. September came in at $395,000, nearly matching July's highs. That is not a soft market.
How Does This Fall Compare to Last Fall?
Here's where Northeast Florida stood this time last year:
Prices are running $15,000 - $20,000 higher on average than last fall across the board. Inventory is leaner. And homes are moving faster than they were a year ago. The market slowed from its summer pace, but it did not slide backward.
Clay County: Summer into Fall Closer to Home
For those of us in Orange Park, Fleming Island, and the surrounding Clay County communities, here's the local picture:
Clay County followed a similar seasonal pattern as greater Jacksonville. July was strong at 25 days on market and $360,000 median. By September, days on market climbed to 48 and prices settled at $357,500. Inventory has actually tightened from 999 in July to 960 in September - fewer homes competing for the same buyers.
How Does This Fall Compare to Last Fall?
Here's how Clay County looked this time last year:
Prices are holding in nearly the same range as last fall. Sales volume is comparable. And inventory is running about 150 - 160 listings leaner than it was a year ago. Less competition on the market is a meaningful advantage for sellers.
A Note on Florida Property Taxes
There is something on the horizon that every Florida homeowner and prospective buyer should know about, regardless of where you stand on anything else.
In June 2026, the Florida Legislature passed House Joint Resolution 1-F, which proposes a constitutional amendment that would create a $250,000 homestead exemption on non-school property tax levies for Florida homeowners. The amendment is now headed to the November 2026 General Election ballot, where Florida voters will decide whether it becomes law.
Here is what the proposal says, in plain terms:
If approved by voters, a $150,000 homestead exemption would take effect January 1, 2027, increasing to $250,000 on January 1, 2028, and adjusting for inflation annually after that.
The exemption applies to homeowners who establish Florida residency on or before December 31, 2026. New residents after that date would receive a $50,000 exemption for four years before becoming eligible for the full amount.
The amendment does not affect school board property taxes.
Non-residential property assessment increases would be capped at 5% annually, down from the current 10% limit.
What does this mean for the real estate market? That depends on what voters decide in November. If the amendment passes, reduced annual property tax costs could meaningfully lower the cost of homeownership for many Florida residents - which has the potential to affect both buyer demand and home values. How that plays out in practice will depend on a lot of factors still to be determined.
We are watching this closely and will keep you updated as the November vote approaches. In the meantime, if you have questions about how this might affect your specific situation - whether you are buying, selling, or already in your home - we are happy to talk it through.
What We’re Expecting This Fall
Inventory stays lean. Active listings in Clay County are running below last year’s levels. That keeps sellers in a stronger position than the raw numbers might suggest.
Days on market is the number to watch. September’s 48-day median is still manageable, but if it climbs through October, pricing right becomes everything.
The Jacksonville area price surge in September is a green flag. A median of nearly $396,000 area-wide is not a soft market. Demand for quality homes hasn’t gone anywhere.
Interest rates remain the wildcard. Any movement toward 6% could bring buyers back off the sidelines before the holidays. Fall is when motivated buyers make their move - and that window is open right now.
Serious buyers don’t stop in October and November - the casual ones do. Whose left is motivated. If you’ve been thinking about listing, that’s actually good news.
So What Does This Mean for You?
If you’re thinking about selling: Don’t let the summer slowdown spook you. Inventory is lean, prices are stable, and the buyers who are out there right now mean business. A well-priced home in Orange Park or Fleming Island has a real audience. Let’s talk about what yours is worth today.
If you’re looking to buy: Fall is historically one of the best times to buy. Less competition from other buyers, sellers who are motivated to close before the holidays, and a more balanced market than six months ago. Come in prepared and pre-approved and you’re in a strong spot.
If you’re watching and waiting: The data doesn’t show a crash coming. Prices are holding. Inventory is lean. Waiting for a dramatically better deal may mean missing the window that’s open right now. Give us a call and let’s talk through your situation.
Whether the rain lets up or not, we’ll be out here - showing homes, answering questions, and helping our neighbors make smart moves. That’s what we do. Go Jags.
— Gavin Toth